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  • Writer's pictureRoyal LePage Estate Realty

Year-End Real Estate Projections Adjusted Slightly Amidst Sluggish Q3 Performance

As per today's release of the Royal LePage House Price Survey, the overall price of homes in Canada witnessed a year-over-year growth of 3.6%, reaching $802,900 in the third quarter of 2023. Contrarily, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price experienced a modest decline of 0.8%. This suggests that, despite the adaptability of many Canadians to the heightened borrowing costs, the lingering impact of elevated interest rates continues to influence market dynamics nationwide. Notably, in September, the Bank of Canada opted to maintain its key lending rate at 5.0%, maintaining stability after implementing two consecutive rate hikes during the summer.

“With activity slowing, home prices softened in some of our major markets over the last three months, following a stronger-than-expected second quarter. Prices remain up on a year-over-year basis, with today’s stable market standing in sharp contrast to the steep declines experienced in the third quarter of 2022,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “While trading volumes in most regions remain sluggish, Canada’s housing market is on solid footing, with pent-up demand building. We don’t anticipate a material change in property prices through the remainder of the year.”


The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.4 per cent year over year to $833,600, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.8 per cent year over year to $587,400. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.0 per cent, while the median price of a condominium remained flat, increasing just 0.1 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.


Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 7.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect softer activity than expected in the third quarter, which resulted in a modest decline in prices in some markets, including Toronto and Vancouver.


In conclusion, as we reflect on the current state of Canada's real estate landscape, Phil Soper's insights shed light on the nuanced trajectory observed in recent months. The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023, predicting a 7.0% aggregate price increase, reflects adjustments made in response to the softer activity experienced in the third quarter, particularly in markets such as Toronto and Vancouver. As we navigate the intricate dynamics of the real estate market, these insights from Royal LePage provide a valuable compass for understanding the current trends and anticipating the evolving landscape in the coming months.


1 Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.

2 Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening, September 6, 2023


Learn more:

National release: rlp.ca/Q3-2023-hps-release

Regional analyses: rlp.ca/regional-releases

Quebec Markets release: rlp.ca/Q3-2023-hps-release-Quebec

House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2023

Market Survey Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2023

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